A Guerra na Síria como Guerra Híbrida Orientada à Mudança de Regime (2011–2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26792/rbed.v13i1.75517Palabras clave:
Guerra da Síria; Guerra Híbrida; Mudança de Regime; Conflito Indireto.Resumen
Este artigo sustenta que a guerra na Síria deve ser analisada como um caso paradigmático de guerra híbrida orientada à mudança de regime, e não como “guerra civil” ou “guerra por procuração” em isolamento. Argumenta-se que, desde antes de 2011, a Síria foi tratada por Washington como nó estratégico de um redesenho regional voltado a enfraquecer o eixo Irã-Síria-Hezbollah e preservar vantagens de aliados-chave, ativando uma arquitetura de coerção que combinou pressão legal-diplomática, sanções, operações encobertas, assistência indireta, manipulação informacional e delegação do combate a forças locais. No terreno, a convergência entre patrocínios externos concorrentes (EUA, Turquia, Qatar, Arábia Saudita, entre outros) e a resposta contrabalanceadora do bloco pró-regime (Rússia, Irã e Hezbollah) produziu fragmentação insurgente, escalada de correntes jihadistas, disputa por governança e internacionalização precoce do conflito. Mobilizando evidências de process tracing e revisão bibliográfica, o artigo reconstrói o mecanismo causal pelo qual instrumentos híbridos ampliaram custos, corroeram capacidades estatais e reorganizaram incentivos de atores armados, culminando na exaustão do governo Assad e na reconfiguração do campo político-militar sírio no pós-2024.
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