Por que os Estados Querem a Bomba? As Condições para a Proliferação Nuclear

Autores

  • Raquel Gontijo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26792/rbed.v3n1.2016.64087

Palavras-chave:

Proliferação, Armamentos nucleares, Tecnologia nuclear, Demanda e oferta.

Resumo

Este artigo tem por objetivo apresentar uma revisão da literatura sobre os condicionantes da proliferação nuclear. Reunimos as diferentes abordagens em quatro grandes modelos: a demanda dos Estados por segurança, o contexto normativo e ideacional, os determinantes políticos domésticos e a oferta de tecnologia.

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Biografia do Autor

Raquel Gontijo

Doutoranda em Relações Internacionais pelo Programa de Pós Graduação San Tiago Dantas (UNESP, UNICAMP e PUC-SP), na área de Paz, Defesa e Segurança Internacional.

Referências

ALLISON, Graham T. (1969) “Conceptual models and the Cuban Missile Crisis”. The American Political Science Review, vol. 63, n. 3, p. 689-718.

ALLISON, Graham T.; ZELIKOW, Philip. (1999) Essence of decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Longman.

BETTS, Richard K. (1977) “Paranoids, pygmies, pariahs, and nonproliferation”. Foreign Policy, 26, p. 157-183.

BRAUN, Chaim; CHYBA, Christopher F. (2004) “Proliferation rings: New challenges to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime”. International Security, vol. 29, n. 2, p. 5-49.

CHAFETZ, Glenn; ABRAMSON, Hillel; GRILLOT, Suzette. (1996) “Role theory and foreign policy: Belarussian and Ukrainian compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime”. Political Psychology, vol. 17, n. 4, p. 727-757.

CIRINCIONE, Joseph. (2007) Bomb scare: The history & future of nuclear weapons. New York: Columbia University Press.

EGELAND, Kjølv. (2016) “Change the incentives: Stigmatize nuclear weapons”. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Voices of Tomorrow, 15 March 2016. Disponível em: <http://thebulletin.org/change-incentives-stigmatize-nuclear-weapons9261?platform=hootsuite>, acesso em 22 de março de 2016.

EPSTEIN, William. (1977) “Why states go – and don’t go – nuclear”. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol. 430, p. 16-28.

FLANK, Stephen. (1993) “Exploding the black box: The historical sociology of nuclear proliferation”. Security Studies, vol. 3, n. 2, p. 259-294.

FUHRMANN, Matthew. (2008) “Exporting Mass Destruction? The Determinants of Dual-Use Trade”. Journal of Peace Research, vol. 45, n. 5, p. 633-652.

FUHRMANN, Matthew. (2009a) “Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements”. International Security, vol. 34, n. 1, p. 7-41.

FUHRMANN, Matthew. (2009b) “Taking a Walk on the Supply Side: The Determinants of Civilian Nuclear Cooperation”. Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 53, n. 2, p. 181-208.

GARTZKE, Erik. KROENIG, Matthew. (2009) “A strategic approach to nuclear proliferation”. Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 53, nº 2, p. 151-160.

GILINSKY, Victor. (2014) “Nuclear Power, Nuclear Weapons – Clarifying the Links”. In: SOKOLSKI, Henry (ed.). Moving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation. Carlisle Barracks, PA: United States Army War College Press, p. 119-148.

GRAHAM Jr., Thomas; HANSEN, Keith A. (2009) Preventing catastrophe: The use and misuse of intelligence in efforts to halt the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

HALPERIN, Morton H. (1972) “The decision to deploy the ABM: Bureaucratic and domestic politics in the Johnson administration”. World Politics, vol. 25, n. 1, p. 62-95.

HOLDREN, John P. (1983) "Nuclear power and nuclear weapons: the connection is dangerous". The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

HYMANS, Jacques E.C. (2012) Achieving nuclear ambitions: Scientists, politicians and proliferation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

HYMANS, Jacques E.C. (2006a) The psychology of nuclear proliferation: Identity, emotions and foreign policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

HYMANS, Jacques E.C. (2006b) “Theories of nuclear proliferation”. Nonproliferation Review, vol. 13, nº 3, p. 455-465.

JERVIS, Robert. (1989) The meaning of the nuclear revolution: Statecraft and the prospect of Armageddon. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

JESUS, Diego Santos Vieira de. (2012) “Em nome da autonomia e do desenvolvimento: o Brasil e a não-proliferação, o desarmamento e os usos pacíficos da energia nuclear”. Meridiano 47, vol. 13, n. 129, p. 28-34.

JO, Dong-Joon; GARTZKE, Erik. (2007) “Determinants of nuclear weapons proliferation”. Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 51, nº 1, p. 167-194.

KEMP, R. Scott. (2014) “The nonproliferation emperor has no clothes: The gas centrifuge, supply-side controls, and the future of nuclear proliferation”. International Security, vol. 38, n. 4, p. 39-78.

KROENIG, Matthew. (2009a) “Exporting the bomb: Why states provide sensitive nuclear assistance”. American Political Science Review, vol. 103, nº 1, p. 113-133.

KROENIG, Matthew. (2009b) “Importing the bomb: Sensitive nuclear assistance and nuclear proliferation”. Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 53, n. 2, p. 161-180.

LAVOY, Peter R. (1993) “Nuclear myths and the causes of nuclear proliferation”. Security Studies, vol. 2, n. 3, p. 192-212.

MAY, Michael M. (1994) “Nuclear weapons supply and demand”. American Scientist, vol. 82, n. 6, p. 526-537.

MEDEIROS, Tharsila Reis de. (2005) Entraves ao desenvolvimento da tecnologia nuclear no Brasil: dos primórdios da era atômica ao Acordo Nuclear Brasil-Alemanha. Orientador: João Antonio de Paula. Dissertação (mestrado) – Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional – Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas. Belo Horizonte.

MONTEIRO, Nuno P.; DEBS, Alexandre. (2014) “The strategic logic of nuclear proliferation”. International Security, vol. 39, n. 2, p. 7-51.

MONTGOMERY, Alexander H. (2013) Stop helping me: When nuclear assistance impedes nuclear programs. Disponível em: http://people.reed.edu/~ahm/Projects/ProlifTK/Montgomery2013Stop.pdf, acesso em 03 de janeiro de 2016.

MONTGOMERY, Alexander H.; SAGAN, Scott D. (2009) “The perils of predicting proliferation”. Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 53, n. 2, p. 302-328.

OGILVIE-WHITE, Tanya. (1996) “Is there a theory of nuclear proliferation? An analysis of the contemporary debate”. The Nonproliferation Review, vol. 4, n. 1, p. 43-60.

OLIVEIRA, Odete Maria de. (1998) “A integração bilateral Brasil-Argentina: tecnologia nuclear e Mercosul”. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, vol. 41, n. 1, 1998, p. 5-23.

PATTI, Carlo. (2013) “O programa nuclear brasileiro entre passado e future”. Boletim Meridiano 47, vo.. 14, n. 140, p. 49-55.

PRICE, Richard; TANNENWALD, Nina. (1996) “Norms and deterrence: the nuclear and chemical weapons taboo”. In: KATZENSTEIN, Peter J. The culture of national security: Norms and identity in world politics. New York: Columbia University Press.

SAGAN, Scott D. (1996/97) “Why do states build nuclear weapons: Three models in search of a bomb”. International Security, vol. 21, nº 3, p. 54-86.

SAGAN, Scott D. (2004) “Realist perspectives on ethical norms and weapons of mass destruction”. In: HASHMI, Sohail; LEE, Steven (ed.). Ethics and weapons of mass destruction: Religious and secular perspectives. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 73-95.

SAGAN, Scott D. (2011) “The causes of nuclear weapons proliferation”. Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 14, p. 225-244.

SILVA, Marcos Valle Machado da. (2010) O Tratado Sobre a Não-Proliferação de Armas Nucleares (TNP) e a inserção do Estado brasileiro no regime dele decorrente. Orientador: Antonio Carlos Pinto Peixoto. Dissertação (mestrado) – Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Relações Internacionais, Rio de Janeiro.

SINGH, Sonali; WAY, Christopher R. (2004) “The correlates of nuclear proliferation: A quantitative test”. Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 48, nº 6, p. 859- 885.

SOLINGEN, Etel. (1994) “The political economy of nuclear restraint”. International Security, vol. 19, n. 2, p. 126-169.

SUCHMAN, Mark C.; EYRE, Dana P. (1992) “Military procurement as rational myth: Notes on the social construction of weapons proliferation”. Sociological Forum, vol. 7, n. 1, p. 137-161.

TANNENWALD, Nina. (2007) The nuclear taboo: The United States and the non-use of nuclear weapons since 1945. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

THAYER, Bradley A. (1995) “The causes of nuclear proliferation and the utility of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime”. Security Studies, vol. 4, n. 3, p. 463-519.

VARGAS, Everton Vieira. (1997) “Átomos na integração: a aproximação Brasil-Argentina no campo nuclear a construção do MERCOSUL”. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, vol. 40, n. 1, p. 41-74.

Downloads

Publicado

2016-07-07

Como Citar

Gontijo, R. (2016). Por que os Estados Querem a Bomba? As Condições para a Proliferação Nuclear. Revista Brasileira De Estudos De Defesa, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.26792/rbed.v3n1.2016.64087

Edição

Seção

Artigos